Hey Professor, Don't Fight the Tape!

In this short article I am going to debunk the beliefWell Professor, they neglected to tell you at IKE
that has been long-standing. The more "institutionalUniversity, that traders are very efficient (and are
education" you have, the better a trader you shall be.always forward looking), and once information is
This idea has been ingrained in us since we werereleased we discount it very quickly. That's when the
children. We were always told to look up to doctorsfun begins we start running stops and exaggerate
or lawyers and engineers etc. After all they are sharpprice even more to your detriment. I can hear all the
intellectual people. They have years of schoolingcollege boys now "where is this going to stop its
behind them, therein lies the problem of us normalwrong." Well Professor an up move will stop when
guys and gals setting in limiting belief upon ourselves.the last buyer has bought. A down move will stop
That belief being we need to be intellectuallywhen the last seller has sold. Simple stuff really.
educated, we need to listen to the talking heads onIn my experience there has always been an inverse
the television Dr. Farnsworth of IKE Academy (Icorrelation between higher education and short-term
Know Everything Academy) says "the euro is goingtrading. I'm not here to insult all the intellectuals just
to 2.60 due to the imbalance of sugar, grain, and fishto point out what obstacles they may face. (Too
in Lichtenstein." I'm here to tell you that's not themuch knowledge.) I have to admit I don't mind taking
case.a shot at them, all in fun. However the best traders
Out of all the doctors or lawyers you know, howhighly educated or not have good street smarts.
many are successful traders? I would guess notWhat I mean by that is they go with the flow and
many, their lack of success has nothing to do withdon't question the market. The main points I want to
their intellectual intelligence. It has everything to doget across are:
with short-term trading and not understanding some• You don't need to listen to the talking heads
key issues. What are the key issues? And why dothey know no more then you. Rely on your own
they not know? One of their problems is that allMarket Analysis. • In short term trading only
information taught at higher education levels inmarket timing systems based on price is what you
business schools is a fundamental analysis, and nevershould look at. • Concentrate on basic economics
does address the key factors driving price. Fear andand mass psychology. Keep it as simple as possible.
greed. This is what leads the intellectual people toSo in closing remember a very important point,
scratching their heads and saying" wait a second thatMarkets can stay irrational much longer then we can
price is wrong, GDP dictates the Euro should bestay solvent. So "Hey Professor, Don't Fight The
lower why is it going up?"Tape!